Here's a simpler response.

Some appliances last seemingly forever, but water heaters are not on the list. When you install the new one, write the date of installation on the unit. Then find out when it too is due to fail -- because it will! Go by the guarantee -- it will probably die within a couple of years after it expires, and ask local plumbers how long heaters last in the area. Then, instead of waiting for the inevitable leak, replace it at your convenience near but before the end of its life. Write on it, REPLACE AROUND mid-2020.

It's like a four-bulb light fixture. When the first one burns out, you might as well replace all four, because the other three are soon to follow.

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